(Updates to the original article are in red)
Everton vs Hull – Everton averages 2.14 goals at home and lets in an average of 0.71. Hull scores an average of 0.50 away and concedes an average of 2.21 away. Everton’s home form has been great while they have a decent home record against the Tigers.
Other featured games
Tottenham vs Southampon – Spurs averages 2.36 goals at home and the best home defence in the league concedes an average of 0.50. And Spurs has the best home record with 12 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses this season. However, Kane is definitely out and that could make a big difference. Spurs have already played top-flight opposition without Kane in the team nine times in the current campaign. In those nine matches, they managed only three wins and eight goals. On the other hand, Southampton have only one clean sheet in their last 25 away league games against Spurs. So we are still cautiously optimistic about Spurs.
Middlesbrough vs Manchester United – Boro scores a meager 0.85 goals at home on average. Man Utd are defensively sound and concedes an average of 1.00 goal away. They share the division’s best defensive away record with Chelsea, conceding just 12 goals, and have only let in four goals in their last seven away games.
Bournemouth vs Swansea – Looks like a high scoring game. Bournemouth has turned the corner and has always been an attacking side. They average 1.71 goals at home while the Swans leak 2.21 goals on average away. However, the Cherries are prone to leak goals at the back as well. If we were to look at stats, the last seven matches between these sides have produced a total of 30 goals – an average of over four per game.
West Brom vs Arsenal – Possibly another high scoring game. WBA has been good at home despite the recent dip in form, especially after reaching the 40 points mark. Arsenal has been a disaster recently, except for their win over non-League side Luton in the FA cup. But having said they, the Gunners average 2.23 goals away from home and has no reason to rest players anymore after being knocked out of the Champions League. On the other hand, WBA averages 1.71 goals at home. In head to head clashes, Arsenal have scored in 22 consecutive league matches against West Brom, winning 15 of them, since a 0-0 away draw in November 1985. Moreover, the Baggies are yet to beat a top-seven team this season.
I would go for Robles of Everton or Lloris of Spurs given their team’s mean defence, home form and opponents. De Gea of Man Utd might be a good pick too. They are playing away and he might pick up points from more saves on top of a clean sheet too.
My picks would include Baines (75% chance of being fit), Funes Mori (if Baines fails fitness test) & Coleman of Everton, Davies & Walker (75%) or Trippier (alternative) of Spurs for the very same reason. Alonso of Chelsea would be a good pick as well given that he’s the games top performing defender with a PPM of 13.3. Chelsea always has a good chance of a clean sheet and he has a high chance of earning offensive points too. However, note that Chelsea hasn’t had a clean sheet in the league in the last 5 games. Lastly, I would also recommend defenders from Man Utd too. Blind (75%), Shaw (alternative) and Valencia would be the best picks if they start. But be wary of player rotations given their midweek exertions.
Barkley of Everton would be my first pick this week for obvious reasons. He is in good form too. From Spurs, Eriksen & Alli would be obvious choices but with Kane out, I actually like Son. He’s also in great form after his hat trick against Millwall. But as mentioned above, we are wary of Spurs lacking bite in attack with Kane out. Sigurdsson would be another good pick. Although the Swans are playing away from home, Bournemouth aren’t defensively sound. And Sigurdsson has been in great form with at least a goal or assist in the last 7 games, scoring a minimum of 13.5 points in each of them. And it’s hard to ignore Hazard, the top performing midfielder in the game right now. Although Chelsea aren’t as rampant away from home, I still back them to get a win over Stoke this weekend. And Hazard has still managed a minimum of 11.0 points in his last 5 games. But if you are feeling adventurous, you might want to go for Zaha of Crystal Palace. The man is in decent form and Palace looks like they are starting to pick up at the right time under Allardyce.
A last minute addition to the equation would be Snodgrass (75%) of West Ham, if he’s fit and picked to start. When Andy Carroll is fit and playing, there is a good chance that Snodgrass could bag an assist or have numerous key passes to his name. Leicester should be exhausted after their big Champions League win in midweek. Another point to note is that the Foxes have kept just one clean sheet in their last 21 away matches in this fixture.
My star picks this week would be Sanchez of Arsenal & Lukaku of Everton. Sanchez is the top performing forward in the game with a PPM of 18.7. Overlook him at your own risk. As for Lukaku, he has 8 goals & 2 assists in his last 5 home games. I doubt any Togga manager will leave him out.
But if you want a differential pick, I would recommend King of Bournemouth. The star man in last week’s Perfect team is on fire and has 7 goals in his last 5 games. And King already has three goals in his three top-flight games against Swansea.
How about Defoe of Sunderland? He’s just been called up to the England squad and would definitely want to show his qualities with a few goals. And Sunderland has won 7 of the last 9 home meetings with Burnley in the league, drawing the other 2.
Of if you are a United fan, Rashford could be your best bet for a goal. He would definitely relish the opportunity to step up in the absence of Zlatan and after only making the bench for their midweek Europa League game. And United have scored in each of their last 14 away league games against Middlesbrough.
If you are in the blue half of Manchester, then you would go for Sergio Aguero. This might be a very tight and tactical game but the man has scored in all four of his Premier League games versus Liverpool at the Etihad Stadium. And we all know how ‘watertight’ Liverpool’s defence is.